VERY VERY VERY MUCH A WORK IN CONSTRUCTION.  ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISKUNDER CONSTRUCTION

Behavioral Finance


after the RENO conference Af the 


Topics to cover: Videos
Week 1 Intro: Predictably irrational
Week 2 ten things classic finance can't explain but BF tries to

Reading: chapter 1,2 and Fama paper
Kahneman
Week 3:  

Panic!  (no not this Panic!)  and escaping a crash  (from Simplixity) or from a building (think 9-11)
    People as dots, 1959 video on topic, probably too strong for class, but if you are brave a video from 911., here is a TV version.



Pride and regret--Chapter 3

Losing hurts more than winning feels good-
Good definition from Behaviouralfinance.net
-Endowment effect
Duke Basketball

Risk perceptions- Chapter 3



Prospect theory

Financial implications-

Required reading:
Still an anomaly? By Dalton
aaaa


Week 4 Work on individual projects (I had to be at hospital for family emergency)

Framing:  Definition from Wikipedia

"A frame in social theory consists of a schema of interpretation—that is, a collection of anecdotes and stereotypes—that individuals rely on to understand and respond to events.[1][page needed] In simpler terms, a person has, through his lifetime, built a series of mental emotional filters. They use these filters to make sense of the world. The choices they then make are influenced by their frame or emotional filters.

In psychology, framing is influenced by the background of a context choice and the way in which the question is worded."

Your perspective matters on how you perceive just about anything


Too much already!  Stop.  Just give me a simple idea: Why heuristics are used.

From Shookrun: " When overwhelmed with facts, we select a small part of them and usually reach a different conclusion from what the entire data set would suggest. Researchers have found that people react to this avalanche of data by adopting shortcuts or rules of thumb rather than formally calculating the actual odds of a given outcome. Known to psychologists as judgmental heuristics in technical jargon, these shortcuts are learning and simplifying strategies we use for managing large amounts of information. Backed by the experience of a lifetime, most of these judgmental shortcuts work exceptionally well, and allow us to cope with data that would otherwise overwhelm us. We also use selective processes in dealing with probabilities: in many of our decisions and judgments, we tend to be intuitive statisticians. We apply mental shortcuts that work well most of the time. We think our odds of survival are better when driving at 55 miles an hour that at 90 miles an hour, although few of us have ever bothered to check the actual numbers."
Marketing:

How it impacts Finance
 Framing 
 Anchoring--not this type, nor this
             Examples:   the number 20.  

 Representiveness
 More on Respesentiveness

Required reading: Ritter 2003, Men and Women and Money, gender overconfidence and trading,
week 6 Update on projects--

What is rational?
Helping others?  
Charities?
Big!
From 2005: "Generosity is a long-standing American tradition, one that continues to grow. The Giving USA Foundation estimates that Americans gave $248.5 billion to charity last year, a threefold increase in inflation-adjusted terms since 1964. To put the size of the donations in perspective, Americans gave to charity last year an amount roughly equal to the national incomes of Norway or Indonesia.1 The most important source of giving is, not surprisingly, contributions from private individuals, which represent more than 75 percent of the total. The second most important source of contributions is foundations, and in third place, bequests."


 But how is it rational?
 From New Yorker:
"Giving is not about a calculation of what you are buying,” Karlan said. “It is about participating in a fight.” It is about you as much as it about the effect of your gift. As much as fund-raisers say that they understand these mixed motivations, charities often continue to behave as if donors were automatons. Thus the existence of big matching gifts."

Pay or pray?  Gym Memberships:  (still from New Yorker)
"impure altruism. It fits nicely with the recent explosion of academic research on the anomalies and irrationalities of life. The field is known as behavioral economics. It has shown, for example, that many people buy monthly memberships to health clubs even when paying individually for each visit would be much cheaper. Apparently, people imagine that the membership will inspire them to work out far more often than it really does. Behavioral economists don’t question that people generally want to do what’s best for themselves — and probably what’s best for their favorite cause, as well. But the world is a complicated place, full of psychological nuances that trip them up."

oxytocin may be the reason.



Readings:

Neuroeconomcis by Lowenstein, Rick, and  Cohen
Neuroeconomics and Rationality-Chorvat and McCabe

Monkey Business:

Gambling is fun: "monkeys chances to choose to look at either of two target lights on a screen. Looking at the "safe" target light yielded the same fruit juice reward each time. However, looking at the "risky" target light might yield a larger or smaller juice reward. The average juice reward delivered by looking at either target was the same.  To their surprise, the monkeys overwhelmingly preferred to gamble by looking at the risky target. This preference held, regardless of whether the scientists made the risky target reward more  variable, or whether the monkeys had received more or less fruit juice during the course of the day.
This result is another knock at the foundations of economic theories that assume perfect rational utility maximization by market actors."
 
and from LiveScience:

"It seemed very, very similar to the experience of people who are compulsive gamblers," Platt points out. "While it's always dangerous to anthropomorphize, it seemed as if these monkeys got a high out of getting a big reward that obliterated any memory of all the losses that they would experience following that big reward."

Inside look

The researchers then wired electrodes into a part of the monkeys' brains that, in humans and animals, is known to process information on rewards."

Papers from the FMA that had a tie to behavioral finance



Marshmallows,

from MIT on How the Brain works

Shiller, DeLong and others.  REALLY GOOD!

Chris DeCharms on fMRI

The brain on trust: the NeuroEconomics of trust
Paul Zak: This is your brain on money.

Brian Knutson on Desire.

After the FMA conference in RENO


From Standford
"Altruistic behaviour is common throughout the animal kingdom, particularly in species with complex social structures. For example, vampire bats regularly regurgitate blood and donate it to other members of their group who have failed to feed that night, ensuring they do not starve. In numerous bird species, a breeding pair receives help in raising its young from other ‘helper’ birds, who protect the nest from predators and help to feed the fledglings. Vervet monkeys give alarm calls to warn fellow monkeys of the presence of predators, even though in doing so they attract attention to themselves, increasing their personal chance of being attacked. In social insect colonies (ants, wasps, bees and termites), sterile workers devote their whole lives to caring for the queen, constructing and protecting the nest, foraging for food, and tending the larvae. Such behaviour is maximally altruistic: sterile workers obviously do not leave any offspring of their own — so have personal fitness of zero — but their actions greatly assist the reproductive efforts of the queen.

From a Darwinian viewpoint, the existence of altruism in nature is at first sight puzzling, as Darwin himself realized. Natural selection leads us to expect animals to behave in ways that increase their own chances of survival and reproduction, not those of others. But by behaving altruistically an animal reduces its own fitness, so should be at a selective disadvantage vis-à-vis one which behaves selfishly. To see this, imagine that some members of a group of Vervet monkeys give alarm calls when they see predators, but others do not. Other things being equal, the latter will have an advantage. By selfishly refusing to give an alarm call, a monkey can reduce the chance that it will itself be attacked, while at the same time benefiting from the alarm calls of others. So we should expect natural selection to favour those monkeys that do not give alarm calls over those that do. But this raises an immediate puzzle. How did the alarm-calling behaviour evolve in the first place, and why has it not been eliminated by natural selection? How can the existence of altruism be reconciled with basic Darwinian principles?"



Class will begin with Joel Bennington giving a presentation


Then will discuss some of the papers  from the FMA conference I attended last week:
Advertising, Attention, and Stock Returns
  An Yan, Fordham University
  Thoams Chemmanur Boston College
Prospect Theory, the Disposition Effect and Asset Prices
  Yan Li, Temple University
  Liyan Yang, University of Toronto
When is a Liability not a Liability?
  Tim J Loughran, University of Notre Dame
  Bill McDonald, University of Notre Dame
Home Bias and International Diversification in Closed-End and Open-End Mutual Funds
  Mark Fedenia, University of Wisconsin - Madison
  Mark Hirschey, University of Kansas
  Hilla Skiba, University of Wyoming
Is Information the Motive for Home Bias? A New Perspective from Motives of Trading
  Xi Dong, Boston College
Security Analysts' Incentive and Cognitive Processing Bias: Evidence from Analysts' Recommendations
  Hsiou-wei W. Lin, National Taiwan University
  Ruei-Shian
Home country bias: Does domestic experience help investors enter foreign markets?
  Margarida Abreu, ISEG - UTL
  Victor Mendes, CMVM
  Joao Santos, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Environmental Stressors, Mood, and Investment Decisions: Evidence from Ambient Air Pollution
  Gabriele Mario Lepori, Copenhagen Business School
De better educated investors make smarter investment decisions?
  Petra Halling, University of Vienna
Gender and Portfolio Choice: Are women more risk averse when selecting pension funds
  Jose A Olivares, Universidad del Desarrollo
  Daniela Diaz, Universidad del Desarrollo
  Magdelena Besser, Universidad del Desarrollo
Gravity as a cultural artefact: Culture and distance in foreign portfolio investment
  Brian Lucey, Trinity college dublin
  Colm Kearney, Trinity College Dublin
  Raj Aggarwal, University of Akron
Gender and Portfolio Choice: Are women more risk averse when selecting pension funds
  Jose A Olivares, Universidad del Desarrollo
  Daniela Diaz, Universidad del Desarrollo
  Magdelena Besser, Universidad del Desarrollo


Then some current events:



Risk taking and age, maybe the brain develops sooner than we thoughtl--video from Emory University

From Blog:
 Think too much? Let  me sleep on it (no not this version!)
 Loses hurt more than gains feel good.-Jason Zweig

It's in your genes?  Kuhnen and Chiao (paper)
"Individuals vary in their willingness to take financial risks. Here we show that variants of two genes that regulate dopamine and serotonin neurotransmission and have been previously linked to emotional behavior, anxiety and addiction (5-HTTLPR and DRD4) are significant determinants of risk taking in investment decisions."

*another look at genes and risk (video)
* Mice and genes (video--older)
* Stress and decision making (video)

Professor Shlomo Benartzi is a leading authority on behavioural finance with special interests in retirement planning, investor behaviour and behavioural wealth management. He is currently co-chair of the Behavioural Decision-Making Group at UCLA Anderson, as well as a co-founder of the Behavioral Finance Forum. Benartzi's most significant research contribution is the development of Save More Tomorrow™ (SMarT), a behavioral prescription designed to help employees increase their savings rates gradually over time.   If you only watch one video today, make it this!

Mind of the markets--video presentation by Micheal Shermer who spoke at Google in 2008.  VERY good.


And also go over in more detail each of your presentations.