The Dow changes its makeup, IPOs, the Importance of Governance, Fama and French on the CAPM, Free Trade is good, OPEC, and MUCH more!

 

 

FinanceProfessor News                                    April 2, 2004

 

 

**********************************************************

 

                  FinanceProfessor.com

 Bringing the Real World to the Classroom and vice versa!

 Sign up for the free Newsletter at www.FinanceProfessor.com

 

**********************************************************

                 Top Stories

**********************************************************

 

1.    Shake up in the DOW

2.    IPOs: Waves, Underwear, and Burying the Competition

3.    Disney splits CEO and Chair positions

4.    Ritter looks at differences between US and European IPO markets

5.    Better Governance = Better Credit rating

6.    Fama and French look at Capital Asset Pricing Models (yes plural)

7.    Increased transparency leads to better forecasts

8.    Fed Governor Bernanke endorses free trade and a safety net for displaced workers

9.    OPEC cuts production targets

10.  A Shell game?  Oil firms cut reserve forecasts following Shell’s cuts

 

**********************************************************

 

Hi everyone!

 

Sorry this is a few days late.  It has been busy.  But with so many stories it was imperative that I get the newsletter out before I fell even further behind. 

 

Before the news, I would like to personally thank you to those of you who wrote letters of support on my tenure application.  I did get it! :) Thank you!!! 

 

I am trying to continue the trend of recent newsletters by including more academic papers than just the news.  You seem to agree that this is more useful and there are some great articles this time!  I would especially urge you to read the survey article on CAPMs (yes plural) by Fama and French.  It is great!  (see Investments).

 

I hope your semester is going well.  Sorry I have been sort of bad on replying to your emails.  I have been trying to cut down on online time (24*7 seems a bit much ;) ). 

 

jim

 

JimMahar@FinanceProfessor.com

 

and now the news:

 

***********************************************************

                  Corporate Finance News

***********************************************************

 

Despite reports (and even some illegal sales!) to the contrary, the most widely anticipated Google has not yet gone public.  It has been quite a while since a stock has drawn this kind of anticipation--even pre school teachers are wanting in on the action! Other tech firms are benefiting from the publicity as analysts speculate that a hot IPO will push other internet stocks higher. 

http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/mar04/217731.asp

 

Predictably, the publicity is also drawing in more competition as a new generation of search engines hits the street.  Google in response has continued to up their services and have announced they will also offer email. 

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1557825,00.asp

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/167021_marchex31.html

http://www.dmnews.com/cgi-bin/artprevbot.cgi?article_id=27043

 

As we have seen before IPOs seem to go in waves.  After some down years, this seems to be an up year.  Already there have been almost as many IPOs as all of last year.  Interestingly however, if the past is a good indicator of the future, this may be more of a spike than a tidal wave.  Why?  "While the IPOs to begin trading this year have risen 6.1% above their debut prices, they've fallen, on average, 4% below their closing prices on their first day of trading."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/us/2004-03-28-ipo_x.htm

 

Can we have a little Dignity please?  Dignity is England’s largest chain of Funeral homes and they plan on raising over 113 pounds in their initial public offering.  I hate to make predictions, but this IPO is really going to bury the competition.  (sorry I couldn’t resist!  I tried.) 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3589869.stm

 

A staple in any lesson on IPOs is that a part of the underpricing may be the result of a fear of the investment bankers and firm being sued in the event that the price is too high.  This is largely the reason for such complete disclosures of all risk factors in the prospectus.  Sometimes however things slip through the cracks.  Take ChinaLife’s IPO of last year.  It now is the target of a lawsuit claiming that accounting irregularities were not “adequately disclosed.” Immediately after the shares went public, the stock climbed to over 7 HK$, it is now trading at about HK$4.75.  http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/news/international/china_life.reut/index.htm

(In the spirit of the band the Barenaked Ladies) The IPO market is also hot down under. Under where?  No Underwear.  HAH! ;)  Australian underwear manufacturer Pacific Brands had their IPO recently.  The coverage is good as it shows the allotment to institutions and retail clients, the fact that it was three times oversubscribed, and it explains what the venture capitalists made on the deal (about 73%). 

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,9166429%255E462,00.html

http://www.lyrics007.com/Barenaked%20Ladies%20Lyrics/Pinch%20Me%20Lyrics.html 

 

After a very public proxy battle in which a surprisingly high 43% of shareholders withheld their support for Eisner, Disney split the chairman and CEO positions.  The new Chairman is former US Senator George Mitchell.  For what it is worth, Eisner now claims he is relieved and glad to have been able to give up some of his responsibilities.  Sure. 

http://ap.dallasnews.com/dynamic/stories/D/DISNEY?SITE=TXDAM&TEMPLATE=BUSINESS.html

 

One of my favorite topics in a corporate finance class is to use option theory to analyze various stakeholder positions.  For instance, bondholders (who are in a position equivalent to a short-put position) are risk averse since their payoff is capped and increases in volatility increase the value of the put.  Using this type of analysis, ceteris paribus, shareholders of a financially distressed firm (who have a position equivalent to being long a call option) have a great incentive to stall the actual bankruptcy proceeding (something good might happen).  Recently, HealthSouth gave us an example of this.  Their shareholders are fighting creditors and urging patience before any bankruptcy occurs.

http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2003/07/03/rtr1018091.html

http://www.webprowire.com/summaries/531167.html

 

***********************************************************

                 Corporate Finance Research

***********************************************************

 

What a treat!  European Financial Management has a cool paper by Jay Ritter discussing the differences between the US and European IPO markets.  For instance: did you know that in Germany there is a "when issued market" that allows trading in the shares prior to issuance.  For what it is worth, this is sort of like how the opening lines are set on NFL football games in Las Vegas.   The only question on this one is where to put it. Should it be a corporate story or an international story.  Either way, it is a real keeper!

http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/pdf/eufm_lead_nov03.pdf

 

Loughran and Ritter (2002, RFS) suggested that CEOs may not be concerned about leaving money on the table in IPOs because the losses are netted against the rises in stock price in the secondary market.  Ljunqvist and Wilhelm now test this and find that CEOs who are happy with the IPO are less likely to switch investment bankers for the firm's SEO.  Which does fit the initial story.  It should probably be noted that this line of research (behavioral finance in a corporate setting) is still in its infancy.  Stay tuned.

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=485302

 

This one makes sense.  Better governance, better credit rating.  Ashaugh, Collins, and Lafond find that increased transparency, increased board independence, and a decreased ability of shareholders to block takeovers associated with higher credit ratings.  On the other side, a higher number of blockholders is associated with lower ratings.  Additionally the authors report that "having a majority of the board that is made up of outside independent directors is a key provision in corporate governance that overshadows the NYSE and NASDAQ requirements of having 100% independent audit, nominating, and compensation committees."

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=511902

 

In an upcoming JF, Grullion and Michaely give us an in depth look at stock repurchases. They find more buybacks and that the buybacks reduce the free cash flow problem.  They also find that buybacks apparently do not signal improved operating performance in the future.  Cool factoid: "between 1984 and 2000 corporations spent approximately 26 percent of their annual earnings on repurchases."  Additionally, the paper brings up some interesting questions.  Probably the most interesting question is why stock repurchases lead to lower systematic risk?!  My guess is that there is a confounding variable at work.  Specifically, suppose that firms who have seen recent increases in slack (so lower leverage) are more apt to do buy backs.  These same firms would be more likely than their peers (who have not seen their leverage drop) to have lower systematic risk.  Which is a bit of a stretch, but is consistent with the finding. 

http://www.afajof.org/Pdf/forthcoming/repurchases.pdf

 

On the other hand, in the Journal of Financial Intermediation, Hirtle finds that profitability at banks who do repurchases does in fact increase following the repurchase. http://www.olin.wustl.edu/jfi/vol12.htm#Repurchases

 

Garcia has a thought provoking piece that warns against short-term thinking.  The short version of the paper is that as technology, competition, and strategy have shrunk the business world, firms may have an even greater incentive to think short term.  Winner takes all idea and if you do not win the first round, you may not be around to play other rounds.  While I am not in total agreement, is a very thought provoking--be sure to read the modified prisoners dilemma and the doctor example, both are good!

http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/2004/thinking.htm

 

Sometimes too much of a good thing is a bad thing.  This can be the case with money (Free Cash flow problem), with food (obesity epidemic), insider ownership (Philippe).  Huh? Never heard of Philippe?  Me neither.  Here is the deal: if you figure out what firm this is really about you get a free FinanceProfessor newsletter :)  Ok, so it is not that hard to figure out.  It is a case study by Carol Fischer and myself on a cable firm that is in the news quite a bit lately.  (BTW if you want the case using the real names, check out FinanceProfessor.com.)

http://www.westga.edu/~bquest/2004/philippe.htm

http://www.financeprofessor.com/Adelphia/adelphia_communications%202.19.04.htm

http://www.financeprofessor.com/Adelphia/Adelphianews.html

 

Frye confirms that firms are using equity based compensation *EBC) more than in the past.  Additionally she finds a "positive relation between Tobin's q and the percentage of employee compensation that is equity based."  Interestingly, she finds accounting measures decrease after firms begin paying with EBC.  (which may suggest that firms without EBC focus too much on accounting measures and not enough of cash flow measures. 

http://www.business.sc.edu/jfr/forthcoming.html

 

The diversification discount is the finding that diversified firms sell at less than similar firms in the same industries.  (the 1+1 = 1.5 story from class).  In a forthcoming JFR piece, Best, Hodges, and Lin find that this discount is partially (but not completely) explained by higher information asymmetries at diversified firms which does make perfect sense. 

http://www.business.sc.edu/jfr/forthcoming.html  (BTW sorry about the link)  

 

Anderson, Becher, and Campbell (ABC) report that following bank mergers, CEO pay increases.  That part is not new.  What is new is that they show that these increases in pay are the result of increases in

productivity and not just because the CEO is running a larger bank or because the CEO is more entrenched. While almost a year old I found the link when doing class notes and since I am friends with all three

authors, figured, why not?

http://www.olin.wustl.edu/jfi/vol12.htm#Incentives

 

While I think it was posted before, I am using it in class and it is interesting, so I will run it again.  Penas and Unal examine bonds around bank mergers and find that bondholders benefit from the deals.  Why?  Diversification (that lowers risk) and "achieving too-big-to-fail status" are the main reasons. 

http://jfe.rochester.edu/03176.pdf

 

***********************************************************

                 Investments

***********************************************************

 

I love summary articles.  They help make sense of the world and let us see the forest through the trees.  Some of my favorites include the Harris and Raviv summary article on capital structure, Fama's paper that responds to Behavioral Finance Theories, and Cliff Smith's introduction to his book of readings in Corporate Finance.  And now I have a favorite on the CAPM and other pricing models.  While still officially a working paper, Fama and French give us an excellent recap of both current and past work in the field.  My favorite line (and totally coincidentally the conclusion): "The CAPM, Like Markowitz' (1952, 1959) portfolio model on which it is built, is nevertheless a theoretical tour de force.  We continue to teach the CAPM….but we also warn students that despite its seductive simplicity, the CAPM's empirical problems probably invalidate its use in applications."  WOW!  Well said. http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/finance/papers/capm%202004.pdf

 

Confused about the differing assumptions of pricing models?  More than likely you know that the assumptions don't hold very well and you probably know much research has looked at how the assumptions matter.  Fama and French now provide a framework to hopefully make sense of some of this confusion. In a working paper they show that investor tastes and expectations matter.  For instance, when discussing the CAPM, they conclude that with differing expectations, there is little a priori reason to expect that the market portfolio is the tangency portfolio (and hence the market portfolio may or may not be mean variance efficient, which is a central tenant of CAPM).  Additionally the authors use the concept of investor disagreement (and its impact on the market portfolio) to discuss a range of topics ranging from value investing, to stock picking, and mutual fund performance.  Very interesting.  Not sure how they do it.  Great paper after Great paper! 

http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/finance/papers/assetprices2004b.pdf

 

The Financial Analyst Journal has an editorial designed to stir up controversy.  The title?  "Is Our Industry Intellectually Lazy?"  In it the editor Robert Arnott references numerous cases where people who know better either make use of unrealistic assumptions or forget their fundamentals, and subsequently make erroneous conclusions.  Interesting and disturbing.

http://www.aimrpubs.org/faj/issues/v60n1/pdf/f0600006a.pdf

 

The Dow Jones Industrial average is being shaken up.  Kodak, International paper, and AT&T are being removed while Verizon, AIG, and Pfizer are being added.  The good people at Dow Jones say this is because they want to keep the Dow representative of the overall economy. As telecommunications, Finance, and health care have grown, it was felt that these sectors were underrepresented in the index.  BTW for a look at how the Dow (a price weighted index) differs from the S&P 500 (a market weighted index) check the FinanceProfessor link).

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Dow-Components.html

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mft04040111.htm

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=61E725A5-DC1F-4C04-93C31F1749FC27CB

http://www.financeprofessor.com/introcorpfinnotes/marketindicies.html

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/streetlife/0,15704,607005,00.html

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2479849

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/markets/dow/index.htm

 

 ***********************************************************

              Financial Institutions and Markets

                  (also Money and Banking)

***********************************************************

 

Increases in Central Bank transparency seem to be working.  That is the conclusion of a working paper by Swanson that finds increased transparency over the 1980s and 1990s led to improved market forecasts of short term interest rates and other Central Bank actions.  Interesting given the improved technology and methods we have seen over the past two decades, the paper also finds that market participants did not improve in their ability to forecast GDP changes.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/200406/200406abs.html

 

John Reed has agreed to stay on for another year as head of NYSE. 

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed=OBR&Date=20040401&ID=3551750

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/markets/reed.reut/index.htm

 

While definitely not an official case, I threw some past notes together on the NYSE problems of last fall.  Feel free to use them if you like.

http://www.financeprofessor.com/mba610/Problems_at_NYSE.html

 

Speaking of the NYSE, it is now considering trading derivatives!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4645116/

 

A bill to revamp Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other so-called agencies passed a senate committee but its future looks doubtful.  One area of criticism that may lead to changes is how the agencies (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in particular) fail to write-down their assets in a timely fashion.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/news/fortune500/fannie_mae.reut/

http://www.quicken.com/investments/news_center/story/?story=NewsStory/dowJones/20040401/ON200404011612001110.var&column=P0DFP

 

The European Central Bank kept interest rates constant at 2%. Interestingly while some in the US are calling for the Fed to raise rates (of course not politicians), most of the speculation in Europe was that rates there would be cut again in an effort to speed up the economy.  The economy which is seemingly picking up speed itself.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3589841.stm

http://www.eubusiness.com/afp/040401124627.o8y794b4

 

World markets got an early April Fool’s Day joke when someone started the rumor that Alan Greenspan had had a minor heart attack.  Fortunately, he did not and is fine.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2479191

 

***********************************************************

                International Finance

***********************************************************

 

Sorry for the long section of quoting, but this is such a good recap it is definitely worth it!  It is from a speech by Fed Governor Bernanke, but I am convinced he took it from our discussions of globalization in class last semester! 

 

“Despite what seems to economists to be a compelling case for trade, non-economists are far more skeptical. A perennial public concern, from the emergence of the "Rust Belt" in the 1980s, to the days of Ross Perot's "giant sucking sound," to the more recent debate about the effects of international outsourcing, is that the expansion of trade will cause production to move abroad, at the expense of domestic employment.” While conceding  that some jobs will be lost and some jobs created, and states that “the workings of a competitive labor market, assisted perhaps by appropriate economic policies, ensure that jobs will be created that are commensurate with the size of the labor force and the available mix of worker skills. Thus, in the long run, factors such as population growth, education and training, labor force participation rates, and labor market institutions determine the level and composition of aggregate employment.” Finally he wraps up by stressing the importance of assistance for displaced workers because it “is the right and fair thing to do. Second, helping workers who have lost jobs find new productive work is good for the economy as well as for the affected workers and their families. Finally, if workers are less fearful of change, less pressure will be exerted on politicians to erect trade barriers or to take other actions that would reduce the flexibility and dynamism of the U.S. economy.  In the long run, avoiding economic isolationism and maintaining economic dynamism will pay big dividends for everybody.”  BRAVO!

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040330/default.htm

 

One of my all time favorite international finance papers is by Butler and Joaquin from 2001.  In it they find that in Bear Markets correlations between markets rise, thus leading to an overstatement of the benefits of international diversification and a partial explanation to the home country bias.  Now Hon, Strauss, and Yong show that this was in fact the case following 9-11 as correlations increased.

http://www.business.sc.edu/jfr/forthcoming.html   for Hon, Strauss, and Yong paper

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=221992  for Butler/Joaquin paper

 

Do we believe them?  Washington, erstwhile of steel tariff fame, now says that China is failing to play fair when it comes to trade.  That said, it is probably time to float the yuan. Remember folks, two wrongs do not make a right.    

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3591753.stm

 

There are signs that the Japanese Central Bank may finally be ending (temporarily) their intervention in world currency markets.  T is estimated that over the past two years, they have purchased nearly $500 B in US government bonds.  Why?  TO keep the yen from rising and hurting Japanese exporters.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/31/news/economy/japan/index.htm

 

Will the current weakness in the US dollar (and heightened prices of oil for US consumers) lead to pricing oil based on a basket of currencies?  OPEC is reportedly looking into it.  My guess?  Sooner or later it will happen.  Why?  Economically it does make a lot of sense for OPEC. 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3590133.stm

 

***********************************************************

                Economics

***********************************************************

 

Although if you watched TV much you will deny it, the US economy continues to improve.  Car sales, housing starts, and even the ISM manufacturing index are up.  Job growth remains sluggish however.  As a result of the slow job growth, outsourcing has been taking much criticism. 

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=economicNews&storyID=4730600

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/news/economy/ism/

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/news/economy/jobs_walkup/index.htm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4645334/

 

***********************************************************

                 Personal Finance

***********************************************************

 

April has been designated as Financial Literacy month by the US Senate.  Fed governor Ben Bernake took it as an opportunity to address students as part of the Fed’s jump Start program.  Given the increasing financial complexities of the modern world, it is imperative to be financially literate.  To this aim, the Chicago Fed has created an online resource to aid people in personal finance decisions. (The last link from the Fed itself is better.)

http://www.chicagofed.org/cedric/financial_education_research_center.cfm

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040401/

http://www.jumpstart.org/

http://www.federalreserveeducation.org/fined/index.cfm

 

***********************************************************

                Energy Markets

***********************************************************

 

Given the almost ubiquitous coverage in the US, do I even need to report this?  Oil prices have climbed steadily over the past month.  Why? Many factors: increasing demand, US rebuilding strategic reserves, promised OPEC production cuts, continued problems with getting Iraqi oil production back online, a declining US dollar (remember oil is denominated in USD), and even rumors of diminishing supplies.  The result is that gas and energy prices have climbed sharply.  And of course this is an election year so both presidential candidates had to make their two cents known. 

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N01555945.htm

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/04/01/rtr1320570.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3586197.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3590133.stm

 

Interestingly, the Saudis and others are insistent that market conditions do not warrant such high prices and that the market price is simply too high because of hedge funds and other speculators. Lo and behold, upon news of the production cuts, oil prices did fall as it was reported that US supplies were greater than previously reported.  However, from a political point of view, some are now speculating that higher prices may lead to increased tension between the US and Saudi Arabia.  For their part, Saudi Arabia assured Washington that if prices rise too highly, they will increase production.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aQ1wtxbAeMFw&refer=top_world_news

http://metimes.com/2K4/issue2004-13/methaus.htm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3591299.stm

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/04/01/whitehouse.oil/

 

It should be noted that not all oil producers are part of OPEC.  Moreover even those that are generally do not abide by the production limits.  Additionally the decision to cut production was far from unanimous. 

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2478959

 

How do I know when oil prices are high?  I go for a run.  Living in a marginal oil producing area (Olean derives its name from oil), there are still many wells in the surrounding area.  However, it is fairly costly to extract the oil, so most of the wells sit unused until oil prices rise substantially.  Sure enough last week on a run I saw some wells being turned on.  Lesson: in times of high prices, even high cost producers can make money. Ok, it’s unscientific, but it’s my newsletter, I can add a personal antidote now and then. ;) 

 

Iran agreed to supply China with $20 billion of liquefied natural gas over the next 25 years.

http://metimes.com/2K4/issue2004-13/methaus.htm

 

Argentina is beset by its own energy crisis.  Why?  Limits on gas imports, too few power plants, and a drought that reduces hydro-electric production.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3589583.stm

 

 

***********************************************************

                  Financial Service Industry

***********************************************************

 

Congrats to SBU grad Sam Molinaro!  The Bear, Stearns chief financial officer made almost $11 million dollars last year!  “As is the custom at the investment bank, the executive's salary was just $200,000. However, Molinaro received a bonus of more than $5.3 million, about 25 percent higher than last year. He also received more than $4.5 million in restricted stock, an increase of more than 50 percent, and about $777,000 in "other income." “

 http://www.cfo.com/Article?article=12501&f=ThisWeekInFinance030504

 

The SEC named Chester Spatt of Carnegie Mellon Chief Economist replacing Larry Harris who will return to USC (the University of South California).

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/kqvradio/s_187223.html

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2004-45.htm

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04092/294311.stm

 

***********************************************************

                 Derivatives

***********************************************************

 

Lost in the shouting over the debate on whether to expense stock options is how to value them.  CFO.com has an interesting article that suggests the binomial model, and not the Black-Scholes Option pricing model, is the way to go.  Why?  Largely because with differing assumptions, valuations can be brought down using the Binomial model.  I am not convinced yet. 

http://www.cfo.com/Article?article=12679&f=AlsoOn032904

 

***********************************************************

                 Accounting News

***********************************************************

 

One of the first things that you learn in the first accounting class is the importance of accrual basis accounting.  Surprisingly, the US government does not use it! Moreover, according to CFO Magazine, "The nation's budget deficit would rise dramatically if the U.S. government used the accrual method of accounting favored by Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan.  The 2003 budget deficit came in at $374.8 billion — an amount figured using cash accounting, in which transactions are booked when funds are received or paid. According to a report issued Friday by the Department of the Treasury and the Office of Management and Budget, that figure would be $665 billion under the accrual method."

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,12499||T|441,00.html?f=TodayInFinance_Inside

 

For the second time this year Shell lowered its reserve estimates.  Now news comes that the company had known the estimates were overly optimistic since 2000.  Largely as a result of these well publicized restatements, regulators and analysts are turning up the heat on other producers and sure enough some are reducing their estimates as well.  El Paso lowered its reserves by a staggering 41%!

http://money.cnn.com/2004/04/01/news/international/shell.reut/index.htm

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/business/8291946.htm?1c

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~33~2027564,00.html


Is it over yet?  Please stop?  I am so sick of the whole argument of whether to expense options or not.  Yes, they should be expensed.  Now get on with it.  This has been dragging on for years and years.  Finally FASB agrees. 

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,13039||T|881|,00.html

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/040204dnbusoptions.95c8a.html

 

Want a real “feel good story”?  How about this?  Auditors are doing their jobs better!  That is the conclusion of a Wall Street Journal story that says these changes are the result of market demands and government mandates. 

http://www.accountingweb.com/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=98946

 

A small study of Carolina firms suggest that compliance with Sarbanes-Oxley provisions are increasing the cost of an audit by an average of 23%.

http://www.cfo.com/article/1,5309,12906,00.html

 

***********************************************************

               Top Ten List

***********************************************************

After giving it some thought I came up with the ten papers that have influenced my thinking on the nexus of contracts. 

 

1.  Jensen  (1986) Agency Cost Of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers" American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 2, May 1986

2.  Alchain and Demsetz (AER 1972-Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization” AER 62:777-795.

3.  R. Coase Nature of the Firm (1937)

4.  Jensen 1994: Theory of Man:  Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 1994

5.  Jensen and Meckling (1976) Theory of the firm, Managerial Behavior, Agency costs and Ownership Structure:, JFE3, 305-360.

6.  Black and Scholes (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities, Journal of Political Economy, 81, 637-654

7.  Galai and Masulis 1976. Option Pricing model and the risk factor of stock. JFE, 3:1, 53-82.

8.  Jensen and Ruback  1983.  Market for Corporate Control, JFE 11:1—5-50.

9.  Stuart Gilson 1989-Management Turnover and Financial Distress, JFE 25, 241-262.

10.  Jensen and Murphy 1990 Jensen, Michael C., and Kevin J. Murphy, “Performance Pay and Top Management Incentives,” Journal of Political Economy, April 1990; 98(2): 225-64

 

How many have you read?  What do you think?  Agree?  Disagree?

 

***********************************************************

                FinanceProfessor.com Site of the Month

***********************************************************

Two this month.  I used them both in class and am amazed at how useful each was.

 

The first is a multiple time winner.  Erisk.com.  Sure they changed the format of their newsletter (less often but more in detail) a move which I was not a great fan of, but their site is just so good.  If you teach or take any course, the site is a wealth of information.  I particularly like their Cases.  Great learning tool!!

http://www.erisk.com

http://www.erisk.com/Learning/CaseStudies.asp

 

The second may have been Site of the Month before as well.  I think it was.  The Corporate Library.  While you have to pay for some things, it is a very helpful site that specializes in corporate governance.   For instance they list actual executive contracts (useful for class and maybe research) as well as make an annual worst board. 

http://www.thecorporatelibrary.com/Research/default.html

http://www.thecorporatelibrary.com/Products-and-Services/popup-descriptions/BA-WorstBoards2003.html

 

***********************************************************

                  Financial Trivia/History

***********************************************************

 

On March 31, 2004 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,357

It closed March, 1999 at 9,786

It closed March 1994 at 3,635

It closed March 1990 at 2,707

 

***********************************************************

                  Teaching Ideas

***********************************************************

 

I have long had students fill out a short “bio” on the first day of class.  This allows me to not only get to know the students more quickly but also look back either during the semester or after and often the stories etc are much more interesting and helpful.  A colleague suggested using a digital camera and attaching a picture to the data base so it would “come up” when the student’s bio came up. This would help when you get that dreaded call from a past student asking for a reference and you do not remember him/her.  (has only happened once—to a student I had in a summer class, but still felt horrible).

 

***********************************************************

                   Of interest to students and others!

***********************************************************

 

What great advice!  CFO.com suggests how you can build your own Kitchen Cabinet.  No it is not a woodworking class, but rather a group of people that you can trust and that can help you in your career and life.  (FYI: Andrew Jackson’s Kitchen Cabinet was his informal advisors.  They complement his official cabinet).   A MUST READ.

http://www.cfo.com/Article?article=12799&f=Careers040204

 

***********************************************************

                  What I am reading

***********************************************************

 

An Imperfect God: George Washington, his slaves, and the creation of America.  The basic idea is that Washington, in spite of his role as a plantation owner who once helped to raffle off slaves (can you imagine?!), came to realize the equality of people and did end up freeing his slaves.  While not strictly scholastic (the author uses some personal stories), it is absolutely packed with delicious tidbits of information.  I can not believe how much I have learned on the role of blacks in the Revolution and the various plans (some even from South Carolina!) to emancipate the slaves. GREAT--Possibly my favorite history book since April 1865 (a book which has much the same “feel”. 

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559279273/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442

 

While I am not yet done with Testament, I am convinced that I must be lucky—no one should randomly be able to get so many good books in a row.  This was a Christmas present (the giver had not read it) so I did not know what to expect, but it is great.  It is the story of Webb Baker a union Soldier from Illinois.  Using Baker’s letters, Benson Bobrick gives us an almost first hand account of what it was like to be a Union Soldier in the western theater.  If I am still ranking things, this is best Civil War book since April 1865 ;)

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0743250915/ref=ase_finpapers/002-8519378-9308813?v=glance&s=books

 

I finished The Last Stand of the Tin Can Soldiers.  Definitely recommended.  It centers on the amazingly long odds facing the US Navy in The Battle of Leyte Gulf during the US recapture of the Philippines.  It was a battle that changed history and one that almost makes David vs. Goliath look like a battle of equals.  Amazingly, David won.  VERY interesting.  I was disappointed only in that I had ristened to the abridged version. 

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0553802577/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442

 

I finally finished last Train to Paradise.  It was ok.  The difference between Flagler and Rockefeller sort of reminds of the difference between Allen and Gates.  All told, the book was good, but just did not really capture my imagination.  The part about constuctuion was ok, but not as good as the part about the hurricanes.  I will definitely say that the book strengthened my respect for hurricanes!

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1400049474/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442

 

I also Finished Riotous Assembly.  Way off the beaten path, it was funny but somewhat disappointing.  It is by Tom Sharpe who is one of funniest writers ever, but no where near as good as Wilt (also by Sharpe). (warning: some subject matter may not be appropriate for all).  It is set in South Africa and helped to expose the utter lunacy of apartheid. 

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0871131439/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442

 

In an attempt to get ready for spring and summer bike riding, I have just started reading (not doing) the Lance Armstrong Performance Program by Lance Armstrong and his coach Chris Carmichael.  While most reviewers say the book is too simple and geared towards beginners, I fid it interesting (which I guess says something about my biking abilities).  FWIW Lance has nothing to worry about from me.  His personal training would wipe me out!

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1579542700/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442

 

*************************************************************

                      Quotes of the week:

*************************************************************

 

Labor disgraces no man; unfortunately, you occasionally find men who disgrace labor---US Grant

 

Those who bring sunshine to the lives of others cannot keep it fro themselves---Sir James Barrie

 

For many, the acquisition of wealth does not end their troubles, it only changes them---Marcus Annaeus Seneca

 

The best preparation for good work tomorrow is good work today---Elbert Hubbard

 

Fatigue is the best pillow---Ben Franklin

 

All quotes from The Book of Positive Quotations by John Cook

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0517202166/finpapers/104-9378365-5272442

 

*************************************************************

 

Well that is was fun, but alas that is all I have time for this time around.  I hope you enjoyed it and learned something (or even many things) from it!   THANK-YOU for reading it.  I always am glad when I hear that my energies have not been totally wasted. ;)

 

If you have any ideas for the site or the newsletter please let me know.

 

Jim

 

JimMahar@FinanceProfessor.com

 

Where spring is flirting with us.  We had 15 inches of snow two weeks ago but this past weekend was great!  Temperatures about 60 and sunny.  I even got out on the bike for the first time.  Now there are snow flurries in the air and the weather people called for up to 3 inches of new snow.

 

SBU has lost four men and three women basketball players for a variety of reasons.  Mmm, I wonder if I have any eligibility left ;)

 

who at last look was in the 96th percentile in the Yahoo fantasy sports basketball pool.  I have three of the four teams, but had Kentucky winning it all.  Of course that was before I learned that UConn’s star Okafor is a finance major with a GPA of over 3.8!  Gee, I better get him reading this newsletter!

 

Who is now going to go prove Ben Franklin correct.

 

 

*************************************************************

 

Oh and a final favor…pass this on to someone you think would like it….a fellow student, a past teacher, your current teacher, your parents, anyone who it might help.  Thanks!

 

Thanks for forwarding this so much.  That is the only way I know this newsletter is growing so fast.  :-)

 

*************************************************************

 

copyright 2004 FinanceProfessor.com